Mortgage rates drop

Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since February, falling to 5.71% on 30 year fixed-rate mortgages. "It is remarkable how mortgage rates have remained so low for so long," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "But as long as inflation is held in check, there is little or no pressure to push mortgage rates higher. And at the moment, despite high fuel prices, core inflation does indeed seem to be a nonevent.

"Continuing low rates will keep the housing industry abuzz. As a matter of fact, both new and existing housing sales figures in April are expected to come in at or near record levels." (CNNMoney)

April housing starts and the bubble

When March housing starts came in last month, bubble whispers turned into much louder conversations. Before the bubble talk got too loud; however, new and existing home sales blew estimates away and the real estate market demonstrated that, at least for now, the dynamics have changed. With April housing starts coming in at 11%, the real estate market isn't expected to cool much anytime soon.

Last year, double digit appreciation markets were rare, but those numbers have risen swiftly, particularly in recent months. Nationally, the market is just getting hotter.

Even optimists believe that double digit appreciation rates cannot continue into the future and some markets will eventually lose some value. When, where, and how much; however, are extremely divisive and debatable issues. For buyers, unfortunately, things will probably get much worse before they get better.

Monopolistic realtor commissions?

U.S. antitrust regulators are preparing to sue the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over policies they believe will illegally restrict commission discounting and harm online competitors, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. (CNNMoney)

Affordable homes and the Real Estate Bubble

As each month passes, homes in California become less and less affordable for more and more people. At some point this will have to slow, stop or reverse. With more than half of the Nation's 25 most expensive areas in-state according to most studies, California is bubble talk central.

While the market has shown signs of cooling, it is still defying experts. In terms of real estate, we live in very risky and very unpredictable times. Even those experts that believe there is a big real estate bubble, acknowledge that a pop might be years away.

Essentially all real estate analysts believe that rising mortgage rates will help cool the market, yet rates on 30-year fixed mortgages seem unwilling to rise much higher.

Last week, watching MadMoney on CNBC, Jim Cramer stated that he believed that the Fed "blinked" because the downgrade of GM and Ford to junk bond status would prevent the Fed from taking too much more action.

While the Fed's actions do not directly affect mortgage rates, they do provide some direction. If the Fed stops raising rates, historically-low 30 year mortgage rates might hang around much longer than anticipated.

What happens then? The Southern California real estate debate continues.